Dallas Mavericks should expect a bad season, per ESPN

Although they used just 81 words, ESPN had plenty to say about the Dallas Mavericks in their preseason prediction.

After winning just 33 games in 2016-17, the Dallas Mavericks have set the bar pretty low for the upcoming season. They finished last in the entire NBA in points per game last season and didn’t fare well defensively, either. But how accurate is ESPN’s prediction that the Mavs will finish 12th in the Western Conference?

The good

The Mavericks made perhaps their best move for the long-term future of the franchise they could have this summer. By taking Dennis Smith, Jr., they added a promising young point guard to a team that needs a captain. The ESPN staff had good things to say about his future.

"“The addition of rookie Dennis Smith Jr., who lit up Las Vegas Summer League, definitely makes Dallas more interesting to watch, but it might be a couple of years before that pays off in the win column.”"

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He was a great scorer at South Carolina and he was proficient at running the offense. How that translates to the NBA game is yet to be determined, but his performance in the NBA Summer League left everyone feeling good about him. Patience will be the key in watching him.

Of course, Dallas also still has Dirk Nowitzki. His veteran presence and overall ability are always a joy to watch at the American Airlines Center. Witnessing what he does at his age will never get old.

The bad

Their lack of offense in 2016-17 was obvious, but they struggled defensively as well. It’s important to put points on the board, but stopping the opponent is equally imperative.

Last year’s Mavs allowed the fourth-most points per game in the NBA, surrendering an average of 100.8. But the biggest issue they had last season probably had more to do with where they were than what they did.

When you break it down to things like shooting percentage, the offensive comparison between home and road isn’t much difference. The Mavs shot just .6% better at home than they did traveling. The difference is what happened defensively.

Opponents shot 3.5% better when Dallas was away from home. While that may not sound like much, let’s put that number into perspective.

Suppose a team takes 80 shots in a game. If they hit 45.1% of their field goal attempts, they’d make 36 shots. For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume they’re all two point attempts. That would equal 72 points. But now let’s raise that shooting percentage by 3.5%.

That team that takes 80 shots would now make 39 made field goals. If all of those are two point attempts, that’s 78 points. Six points is a significant difference: especially on a per game basis. For a young rebuilding team, they have to improve what they do defensively at home. But now, brace yourself for the next thing you’ll read.

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The ugly

As someone who’s played his fair share of basketball, I can attest that your typical full court basketball game takes a physical toll. The constant up and down the court is absolutely exhausting and with little down time between possessions, it’s easy for a player to get gassed. But I’ve only played in leagues with weekly games. I can’t imagine playing on consecutive nights and what that feels like. Of course, I’m not a professional athlete, either. I’m not even close.

The Mavericks had 15 instances last season of back-to-back games. In those games, they went just 3-12 on the second night. While fatigue and exhaustion certainly should be considered in that stat, it’s not the case for every team.

Look at the eventual champion Golden State Warriors. Those guys played back-to-back games 17 times in 2016-17. In those 17 games, they won 13 of them. What that means, is there’s a huge difference in conditioning between Dallas and the contending teams.

The final breakdown

So what does this have to do with ESPN’s prediction? It has quite a bit to do with it. The Dallas Mavericks didn’t do much to change. They got younger at a pivotal position, but to this point that’s all they’ve done. Plus, as they stated in the above quote, it could take a while to see that change.

Next: The projected 2017-18 Mavericks lineup

I mostly agree with ESPN’s assessment that this Mavericks team will look a lot like last season’s. They projected a second consecutive 33 win season for Dallas. I’m a tad more optimistic. I think they can contend for a playoff spot, but will still fall short. I place them finishing 10th in the Conference after winning 37 games. They’ll win a couple more times on zero days of rest than they did last year, and they’ll improve a couple of games on the road. It won’t be much, but it could be enough to remain relevant all season. And if they can do that but still get another lottery pick, then it could still be a successful year.