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Dallas Mavericks: Time to rethink long-term plans with Nerlens Noel

By Reid Hanson

DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 25: Nerlens Noel
DALLAS, TX - FEBRUARY 25: Nerlens Noel /
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Suddenly the future looks less clear regarding the union of the Mavericks and budding young star, Nerlens Noel.

When the Dallas Mavericks traded for soon-to-be restricted free agent Nerlens Noel late last season, it was a move meant for the long-term. The season was already lost so the Mavs placed an emphasis on youth and potential. Since that is something Noel has in spades, it was a perfect union.

Not so fast.

This summer things did not go as expected for the Mavericks or for Nerlens Noel. Rumors circulated Noel could demand a contract of the max variety. Such is the price tag for a player of Noel’s pedigree on the open market. So the Dallas Mavericks did the smart thing. They prepared for the worst and hoped for the best.

The Mavs cleared enough money to match any offer their restricted free agent might get from outside suitors. And by making their intentions well known around the league, no outside suitors bothered calling. The idea of a max contract became fantasy once other teams knew the futility in even making the offer.

Therefore to much of our surprise, the predicted market disappeared and the cost plummeted. Proactively, the Mavericks reportedly offered a very generous deal of 4-years, $70 million.

Perhaps it was setting the bar too high or just the way in which everything went down, but Noel refused. He since fired his agent and opted for a one-year qualifying offer of $4.18 million.

You don’t need a calculator to see the $4.18 million he went for is less than the $17 million he turned down, but Noel seems to be eyeing next season as his windfall of riches. By just playing on a one-year deal, Noel will be a free agent next summer – of the unrestricted variety.

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The logic behind that is questionable and Noel clearly overplayed his hand. As DMN Brad Townsend pointed out, the money he left on the table is not easily recouped and the move is quite the gamble given Noel’s injury history.

But enough about him. This is about the Mavericks. More specifically, this about the Mavs’ long-term plans. First off, he’s not as tradeable as many think…

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Reassessing the Future

A couple months ago Nerlens Noel was an obvious piece of the Mavs’ long-term plans. Now, it’s anyone’s guess how long this union lasts. One thing looks clear, the Mavs can’t bank on him being a fixture any longer. And if they really want him to, they’re going to have do something to change the relationship.

Obviously the worst case scenario is that Nerlens Noel turns into a star and the Mavs lose him in free agency next summer. That would be nothing short of heartbreaking to the Mavs faithful who are patiently waiting for Dallas to be contenders once again.

If the Mavericks want Noel to part of their long-term future, they’re likely going to have to re-offer their already generous sum of $17 million per season. It would allow Noel to save face and feel appreciated and it would allow the Mavs a chance to keep moving the franchise forward in a clear direction.

If the Mavs don’t go back to the table, they need to be willing to pivot. In that case Noel can no longer be considered a “given” when discussing future rosters and must be considered a trade piece next summer.

The Mavs need to decide how to play this and it’s very likely to involve some painful decisions. The one thing they can’t afford to do is to lose Nerlens Noel for nothing next summer.

Next: What are the Mavs saving for? A look at '18 free agents

The Dallas Mavericks have money available and other trade pieces at their disposal. They can go either route. They can sign him long-term or they can turn him and couple other pieces into a star player in a sign-and-trade next summer. But the time to decide which path to take is fast approaching…

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